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Nothing stops people from developing an open-sourced driver when a closed-source driver already exists.
You try developing a driver when the vendor makes every excuse in the world not to provide documentation for the hardware. The biggest excuse is a closed-source driver. When a closed-source driver is used as an excuse/apology for not providing documentation, your market theory unfortunately falls to pieces, because the closed source developers have a significant advantage right from the start.

Score:2